March 12, 2025
2 Minute Read
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Betting Tips & Prediction
The Champions League last-16 second leg sees Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano Stadium on Wednesday night, with a place in the quarter-finals up for grabs.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side holds a 2-1 lead after the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu, but with Atletico’s strong home record, this tie is far from over.
Atletico Madrid Looking to Overturn First-Leg Deficit
Atletico Madrid’s weekend collapse against Getafe (2-1 loss) was far from ideal preparation for such a crucial clash. Diego Simeone’s side will need a big response to keep their European campaign alive.
🏟️ Atletico’s Home Strength:
✔️ Unbeaten in 12 of their last 13 home games
✔️ Have only conceded 6 goals in their last 9 home matches
A solid defensive display and clinical finishing will be needed against their biggest rivals.
Real Madrid Eyeing Quarter-Final Spot
Madrid took advantage of Atletico’s La Liga slip-up by defeating Rayo Vallecano 2-1 over the weekend, keeping their title charge alive.
⭐ Key Boost: Jude Bellingham returns from suspension and is expected to play a pivotal role.
🚨 Concerns: Defensive injuries could leave them vulnerable if Atletico apply sustained pressure.
🎯 Madrid’s Strength in Europe:
✔️ Progressed from 21 of their last 22 Champions League ties when they’ve won the first leg.
✔️ Have won this competition a record 15 times and always find a way to win.
Real Madrid will look to control possession and use their counter-attacking pace to kill the game early.
Previous Meetings: Expect Another Close Battle
⚔️ Last 4 Meetings:
✅ Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico Madrid (Last 16, First Leg)
🤝 Atletico 1-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)
🤝 Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico (Supercopa)
🤝 Atletico 1-1 Real Madrid (Copa del Rey)
🔎 Trend to Watch: 3 of their last 4 meetings have ended in 1-1 draws – another tight contest could be on the cards.
Players to Watch
🎯 Julian Alvarez (Atletico Madrid)
✔️ Scored in his last two games against Madrid
✔️ Atleti’s biggest goal threat with Griezmann struggling for form
📌 Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)
✔️ Returning from suspension, expected to start
✔️ Already collected 8 yellow cards and 1 red this season
🔥 Betting Tip: With tempers likely to flare, Bellingham to be carded looks like a strong option.
Predicted Lineups
Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Gimenez, Galan; Simeone, Llorente, De Paul, Lino; Griezmann, Alvarez
Real Madrid: Courtois; Valverde, Rudiger, Asencio, Mendy; Rodrygo, Tchouameni, Modric, Bellingham; Vinicius, Mbappe
Final Prediction & Betting Picks
This all-Madrid showdown is poised for another tight and physical battle. Real Madrid have the advantage, but Atletico’s home strength should not be underestimated.
✅ Best Betting Picks:
- Under 2.5 goals (2.18) – a cagey game expected
- Julian Alvarez to score or assist (1.80) – in great form against Madrid
- Jude Bellingham to be carded (4.25) – has a habit of picking up bookings in big matches
Atletico must come out swinging, but Madrid’s experience in these high-pressure moments could see them through. Expect drama, intensity, and a fascinating 90 minutes in the Spanish capital.
