March 19, 2025
3 Minute Read
Croatia vs France Preview & Betting Tips
The UEFA Nations League quarter-finals continue Thursday night as Croatia host France at Stadion Poljud at 19:45 UTC in the first leg of their knockout tie. With a place in the semi-finals at stake, both teams will be aiming to take control before the return leg in Paris.
Croatia are looking to build on their runner-up finish in the 2023 edition of the tournament, while France are hoping to reclaim the title they won in 2021. Let’s break down the key talking points and the best betting angles for this clash.
Croatia’s Form & Squad News
Croatia weren’t at their best in the group stage, but they did just enough to qualify for the knockouts, finishing second in Group A1 behind Portugal. Their campaign was mixed, with two wins, two draws, and two defeats, showing flashes of quality but lacking consistency.
🔹 Recent form: W2, D2, L2
🔹 Key stat: Croatia have only one clean sheet in their last six Nations League matches.
Zlatko Dalić’s squad still boasts plenty of experience, particularly in midfield with Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić pulling the strings. However, injuries have left the squad light at the back, and their defense will need to be at its best to contain France’s attack.
✅ Expected XI: Livaković; Stanišić, Ćaleta-Car, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modrić, Kovačić, Majer; Perišić, Pašalić, Kramarić
France’s Strength & Recent Performances
France topped their group in dominant fashion, winning four of their six matches and bouncing back strongly after an early loss to Italy. Didier Deschamps’ side is packed with world-class talent, and they come into this match unbeaten in five games.
🔹 Recent form: W4, D1, L1
🔹 Key stat: France have scored 2+ goals in four of their last five Nations League matches.
Kylian Mbappé is the obvious danger man, fresh off a brace for Real Madrid last weekend. The French attack will also be boosted by the return of Eduardo Camavinga from suspension.
✅ Expected XI: Maignan; Koundé, Konaté, Saliba, Hernández; Tchouaméni, Camavinga; Dembélé, Olise, Barcola; Mbappé
Betting Odds & Predictions
🏆 Match Odds
- Croatia to win – 3.65
- Draw – 3.30
- France to win – 2.09
France enter as favourites, and given their strong away record, they look well-placed to take the advantage into the second leg.
Head-to-Head Record
France have historically dominated this matchup, winning six of the last nine meetings. However, Croatia are unbeaten in the last two clashes, including a 1-1 draw at this very stadium in 2022.
Last 5 Meetings:
📆 2022 – France 0-1 Croatia (Nations League)
📆 2022 – Croatia 1-1 France (Nations League)
📆 2020 – Croatia 1-2 France (Nations League)
📆 2020 – France 4-2 Croatia (Nations League)
📆 2018 – France 4-2 Croatia (World Cup Final)
Best Bets & Predictions
✅ France to Win– 2.09
Les Bleus have the stronger squad, better form, and historical edge, making them a solid pick pick.
✅ Over 1.5 France Goals- 2.08
With Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise in attack, France have more than enough firepower to hit the two-goal mark.
✅ Kylian Mbappé to Score or Assist- 2.40
The Real Madrid forward has been involved in seven goals in his last six appearances, making this a strong bet.
📊 Score Prediction: Croatia 1-2 France
Final Thoughts
With plenty of attacking talent on both sides, this game has all the ingredients to be an entertaining first-leg battle. Croatia will need to make the most of home advantage, but France’s depth and quality should give them the upper hand.
Odds are correct at the time of writing.
