March 19, 2025
3 Minute Read
Italy v Germany: Nations League Preview & Betting Tips
The UEFA Nations League quarter-finals bring us a juicy clash on Thursday at 19:45 UTC as Italy welcome Germany to the San Siro. With a spot in the semi-finals on the line, both sides will be looking to set the tone in this first leg before the return fixture in Germany.
Match Preview
Italy will be eager to make a statement after finishing second in their Nations League group behind France. They picked up four wins from six matches, but their campaign ended with a disappointing 3-1 home defeat to Les Bleus in November. That result snapped a six-game unbeaten run, and they’ll need a response here.
Germany, meanwhile, were dominant in Group 3, going unbeaten across their six matches to finish ahead of the Netherlands, Hungary, and Bosnia & Herzegovina. Since their extra-time exit against Spain at Euro 2024, Julian Nagelsmann’s side have looked solid, with a mix of youth and experience keeping them unbeaten since last summer.
Form aside, history favours the visitors. Germany haven’t lost to Italy in their last six meetings, including a stunning 5-2 Nations League victory in 2022. Can the Azzurri flip the script this time?
Key Talking Points
🔹 Italy’s Defence v Germany’s Attack
Italy have been solid defensively at home, conceding just three goals in their last five competitive matches in Milan. However, they’ll be tested by a Germany side that has scored in every game since Euro 2024.
🔹 Germany’s Struggles on Italian Soil
Despite their strong record in this fixture, Germany haven’t won in Italy since 1986. The San Siro is never an easy place to go, and the hosts will be counting on home support to make the difference.
🔹 Missing Stars on Both Sides
Both teams have injury concerns heading into this match. Italy are without Federico Dimarco, a key player on the left flank, while Germany will miss Florian Wirtz, Marc-André ter Stegen, and Kai Havertz. That could put extra responsibility on the likes of Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sané to step up for the visitors.
Predicted Lineups
Italy 🇮🇹
Injuries and squad rotation mean Sandro Tonali is expected to take on a central role in midfield, while Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean could lead the line.
🛑 Notable Absences: Dimarco (injury)
🔹 Predicted XI: Donnarumma; Buongiorno, Calafiori, Bastoni; Di Lorenzo, Tonali, Frattesi, Barella, Cambiaso; Retegui, Kean.
Germany 🇩🇪
Nagelsmann’s side are missing a few key figures, but Jamal Musiala will be crucial in attack. With ter Stegen out, Alexander Nübel is expected to start in goal.
🛑 Notable Absences: Wirtz (suspension), ter Stegen (injury), Havertz (injury)
🔹 Predicted XI: Nübel; Kimmich, Schlotterbeck, Rüdiger, Mittelstädt; Andrich, Groß; Sané, Musiala, Lewelling; Kleindienst.
Betting Picks & Predictions
✅ Both Teams to Score- 1.79 – Seven of the last eight meetings have seen both teams find the net.
✅ Over 2.5 Goals- 2.09 – The 5-2 thriller in 2022 showed how explosive this fixture can be.
✅ Jamal Musiala to score anytime– 4.0 – The Bayern star has been in top form and will be Germany’s main creative spark.
📊 Score Prediction: Italy 1-2 Germany
Final Thoughts
This quarter-final tie is finely balanced. Italy have the home advantage, but Germany’s recent form and firepower make them a real threat. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, so we could be in for an exciting, high-scoring game.
Will Italy take control in Milan, or can Germany extend their unbeaten streak in this fixture? We’ll find out on Thursday night.
Odds are correct at the time of writing
