January 16, 2026
3 Minute Read
Liverpool vs Burnley Prediction, Tips & Preview
Liverpool host Burnley at Anfield in a clash between two sides fighting on opposite ends of the Premier League table. The Reds aim to solidify their top-four push, while Burnley continue to battle against relegation.
Premier League Betting Picks
✅ Dominik Szoboszlai Shot on Target from Outside Box – 1.45
✅ Liverpool Win & Under 4.5 Goals – 1.55
✅ Burnley Over 1 Cards – 1.58
Liverpool Focused on Steady Control
Liverpool’s season has been built on balance more than brilliance. They’ve scored 32 goals in 21 league matches at 1.52 per game, with home output sitting at 1.50. Arne Slot’s men have kept a 40% home clean sheet rate, and both teams have scored in only half their games — showing their preference for control over chaos.
Their performances have mirrored their expected data closely, with xPTS aligning with results. That suggests Liverpool are operating at their true level rather than overachieving. Recent form remains consistent, if unspectacular, as they look to maintain grip on a top-four finish through structured, low-volatility performances.
Burnley’s Struggles Continue
Burnley’s Premier League campaign has been defined by effort rather than effectiveness. With just 22 goals from 21 games, they average 1.05 per match, but only 0.91 at home and 1.20 away. Their xPTS confirms their position near the foot of the table, with defensive frailties evident — high shot volumes conceded inside the box and constant pressure in their own half.
Away from home, Burnley tend to compete in phases but lack control. Across their last 12 matches, they’ve recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 10 defeats. Only two of those games have gone over 4.5 goals, showing a pattern of steady losses rather than collapses.
Head-to-Head: Reds Dominate the Fixture
Liverpool have dominated this matchup historically, winning 13 of the last 17 Premier League meetings (W13-D2-L2) with a +20 goal difference. They’ve won six of the last seven league meetings, conceding only twice during that run.
At Anfield, victories tend to be measured — 3-1, 2-0, 2-1, 1-0 — showing control rather than routs. Burnley have failed to score in five of the last seven against Liverpool, including four straight defeats without a goal between 2021 and 2024.
Player to Watch: Dominik Szoboszlai
Szoboszlai’s long-range shooting is key against low-block sides like Burnley. He’s taken 76% of his 38 shots from outside the box — the highest ratio in the league. Liverpool as a team rank second for attempts from range (120), and Burnley have conceded a league-high 116 shots from outside the area. The setup suits Szoboszlai perfectly to hit the target from distance.
Predicted Lineups
Liverpool (4-3-3): Alisson, Frimpong, Konaté, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike
Burnley (4-2-3-1): Dubravka, Walker, Ekdal, Esteve, Pires, Ugochukwu, Luis, Edwards, Mejbri, Anthony, Broja
Key Stats
- Liverpool home games average 2.5 total goals
- Burnley W0-D2-L10 across last 12 matches
- Both teams scored in 50% of Liverpool league games
- Burnley conceded 116 shots from outside the box
Liverpool vs Burnley Betting Odds
Liverpool Win – 1.23
Draw – 6.40
Burnley Win – 11.00
Over 2.5 Goals – 1.57
Both Teams to Score – 2.14
Liverpool vs Burnley Betting Tips & Predictions
Liverpool’s control and Burnley’s lack of attacking punch point to another disciplined home win without chaos. Expect a professional Reds performance, capped under 4.5 goals, and Burnley to collect at least one booking under pressure.
Premier League Betting Picks
✅ Dominik Szoboszlai Shot on Target from Outside Box – 1.45
✅ Liverpool Win & Under 4.5 Goals – 1.55
✅ Burnley Over 1 Cards – 1.58
