Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao Prediction & Betting Tips

Thursday | 19:00 UTC | Old Trafford | UEFA Europa League Semi-Final, Second Leg

After a ruthless 3–0 first-leg victory in Bilbao, Manchester United are on the brink of a Europa League final. But with nothing to lose, Athletic Bilbao will come to Old Trafford swinging, aiming to expose United’s well-documented defensive frailties.

Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao Analysis

Ruben Amorim’s side produced their most complete European performance of the season last week, silencing San Mamés with a Bruno Fernandes brace and a commanding team display. But if recent history has taught United fans anything, it’s that no lead is entirely safe.

Against Lyon in the previous round, the Red Devils crumbled after a 4–2 aggregate lead, conceding 4 in under 40 minutes. While a collapse of that scale seems unlikely here, United’s defensive inconsistencies could offer Bilbao a sliver of hope.

Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao Analysis

Athletic will need to be aggressive from the off, and that could turn this into a chaotic, open game. United have conceded 1.0+ xG in nine of their 13 Europa League games this season, including 1.1 xG against a 10-man Bilbao last week.

The visitors have no choice but to gamble, and that pressure could lead to early chances. United, however, have found their scoring rhythm in Europe, netting at least twice in each of their last 4 matches, and scoring 31 goals overall in the competition.

Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao Odds

United are strong favourites to win at home, priced around 2.08, while the draw is 3.60. Athletic Bilbao are 3.40 to pull off the upset.

Over 2.5 Goals is 1.89, which is good value considering both teams’ scoring records.

Head-to-Head: Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao

This is only the second European meeting between these two sides, and United were dominant in the first. Fernandes’ double and a clean sheet in Bilbao mean the tie is all but over — but the Spanish side will want to restore some pride.

Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao Players to Watch

Bruno Fernandes has hit six goals in his last four Europa League matches — including three at Old Trafford in 2025. Rested at the weekend, he’s expected to return and lead the line again.

Nico Williams could be playing one of his last European games for Athletic and will be key to any hopes of a comeback.

Rasmus Højlund continues to offer physical presence up front, though his minutes may be managed with United in control.

Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao Predicted Lineups

Manchester United: Onana; Mazraoui, Maguire, Lindelof, Yoro, Dorgu; Ugarte, Casemiro; Fernandes, Garnacho; Højlund
Athletic Bilbao: Unai Simón; De Marcos, Vivian, Alarez, Berchiche; de Galarreta, Jaugegizer; Williams, Berenguer, Williams; Sannadi

Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao Betting Tips & Odds

✅ Over 2.5 Match Goals – 1.89
✅ Draw 2–2 – 14.00

Bet on Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao

Odds correct at time of writing